The Migration Crisis

Mark Noonan3 Comments

Those who have lost their lives in the Mediterranean Sea are victims both of decisions that were made and of decisions that were not made. Indifference to the common good and corruption in their countries of origin; a global economic system that generates poverty and exclusion; fear that fuels prejudice and contempt; the belief that such problems do not concern us; the criminal calculations of those who profit from the suffering of others; the slow and difficult transition from mere emergency management to the development of comprehensive and shared policies. – Pope Leo XIV

This is different in emphasis from the late Pope Francis – while both Popes (and, indeed, all Popes) have supported free migration of people in search of a better life, Francis emphasized heavily the right to migrate. While not stepping back from that very long-held Catholic position, Leo is pointing out that there are problems in the countries of origin which must be addressed. This is important and nobody so far has so much as glanced that way. We sort of pretend these people are just magically appearing at the borders of the West without trying to understand why…and if we don’t ask why, we really can’t begin to address the problems mass migration are creating. We can’t get from mere emergency management until we develop comprehensive and shared policies on it. The crucial thing, though, is the “comprehensive and shared” aspect of it.

As in so much over the past ten years, it is Donald Trump who sort of leads the way here – even if it wasn’t entirely planned on his part (spoiler: I think it might be, but he hasn’t explicitly said so). In taking out the corrupt and anti-human regime in Venezuela, Trump struck a huge blow against the origin of the problem: that is, governments so bad that their people feel they have to flee…doubled by the criminals (often working in tandem with the anti-human governments) who traffic the victims of injustice into the United States and the larger West. Venezuela is no long a problem on this score. The march of rightwing governments in Latin America is also reducing the need to flee and cracking down on the criminals who traffic (and we note that with USAID money no longer flowing, all of a sudden the Left can’t win elections down south). And, of course, strictly controlling our border and deporting those who arrived illegally is simply doing our part domestically. It all works together like a jigsaw puzzle and unless all of it is put together, none of it really works.

If you think we can just deport and build a wall, you’re wrong. The next Democrat President can just tear down that wall and stop deporting. The only way to address the migration issue is comprehensively, as Pope Leo observed. The whole chain of events needs to be addressed. If it is comprehensively addressed, then the next Democrat President can tear down all the walls they/them like…if there’s no mass of people to be moved, it won’t matter.

But we are still not looking at the matter comprehensively. There are nations out there which are complete basket cases – most notably in Africa. It has been 65+ years since most of Africa became independent and, so far, there is not a lot of success to point to in sub-Saharan Africa. Gabon does ok, but actual GDP is still less than 10k per capita. True, this is vastly wealthy compared to most and any observer must note there is a strong correlation between the number of Christians and the condition of the country – the more, the better (Gabon is 80% Christian). But even in some of the Christian areas failure is pretty total. How total? Well, in 1965 when Singapore became independent, the per capita GDP was about $560.00. Now it is more than 90 grand. Per capita. Over a 60 year period. Nigeria has gone from $93 in 1960 to $1,200 today…and Nigeria floats on oil, Singapore has no natural resources at all except that excellent harbor Sir Stamford Raffles located in 1818. Nigeria is about 46% Christian – majority is Muslim. But even absent the Muslim attacks, the country is also wracked with tribal animosities which often supersede religion. Nigeria has about 250 distinct ethnic groups, none make up more than 30% of the population and all of them seem to hate each other to one degree or another. They fight constantly over the power to loot the oil money which flows into the country – estimates are that as much as 20% of Nigeria’s oil is stolen by Nigerians between oil well and tanker.

You can’t have a functioning country like that. It just isn’t possible. And it shows in the millions of Nigerians who have fled – nobody really knows how many. Definitely in the millions. As I’ve noted many times before, I’ve met Nigerians here in the USA. Deeply Catholic ladies and gentlemen! But as we can see, a small sample doesn’t necessarily describe the broad mass. There are great people in Nigeria. There are also absolutely lousy people – you know, the sort who steal oil so they can pile up cash for themselves while 99% of the people live hand to mouth. We don’t address the migration crisis comprehensively until we address this.

Now let’s remember why there is a country called Nigeria. It wasn’t because Nigerians founded it. There actually isn’t a people called “Nigerian”. The name was applied by the British Colonial Office to the area simply so they could have an easy name to describe the area – which was being moved into by the British in order to suppress the slave trade. Think about that: the Royal Navy had been off the coast since 1807 capturing slave ships. The Americas has all banned the trade even if they retained slaves domestically…but so persistent was the slave trade that even with the threat of hanging from a Royal Navy yardarm, the people of Nigeria continued the traffic. The only way to get it to stop was to go ashore and force it to stop. And so it was done. By the late 19th century the whole area was under British rule and slavery was stamped out (after series of wars because even with the British Army coming ashore, they still wouldn’t stop selling their fellow Africans). Peace and order was imposed. Things improved. Roads were built. Harbors constructed. Schools opened. New cash crops were introduced. Sure, the Nigerians had to put up with British colonial officials – never a completely fun thing. But it got better. Development commenced. A barely iron-age society started to become part of the larger world. And then two world wars happened and the Brits just couldn’t afford it (they never made a profit off Nigeria) and so the place was cut lose…handed over to a group of Nigerians who were partially educated and who then proceeded to fight over the spoils…said fight continuing to this day in various forms.

Are we supposed to wait another 65 years to see if they sort it out? With how many millions more Nigerians to flee to the West? I don’t think it is sustainable. And while I am of the view of letting them sort it out – or not, as they case may be – I realize that if I really just go hands-off, then I’ve got Kamala Harris’ spiritual progeny just waiting to get Executive power here in the USA so they can import not the good Nigerians, but the very worst…just the sort of people who fight over tribal issues and who view government office as a license to steal. I think we’re going to have to directly address the issue – and keep a hand in.

I think we’re going to have to Venezuela some of these nations – and in some of the very worst cases, impose a government on them. Sure, such a government can include locals…but in the places where corruption is a way of life, only Americans or other outsiders may have control of the money and police. If we don’t, then they’ll just keep stealing from each other. I don’t want an American Empire…but I also can’t in either practical or moral terms just let things slide. I do have a moral obligation to my foreign brothers and sisters…and even if they are too pig headed to understand, we might have to force them into the right path. And not just for their good, but for ours. Bottom line, we can’t persist with how it was before Trump…but we also just can’t build a wall and call it a day. We’re really going to have to think about what we want as an end state…and then steel ourselves to making it happen.

America, 250

Mark Noonan14 Comments

It was just a few words:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

There is more to the document, of course, but that is it – that is America, distilled. Nothing written by the hand of Mankind is more important. It is the peak of humanity and we can either sustain it or retreat from it – we cannot improve it.

To state that we’re all equal and endowed by rights – including the right to alter or abolish our form of government – is the true revolution in human affairs. There is nothing like it before, and nothing after. Every other attempt at crafting a society puts a “but” in there. Some mechanism whereby it is not held to be true that all people are created equal and that, when push comes to shove, their rights are not an endowment, but a revocable gift. It is those words which set the standard. A standard the entire world falls short of. Even such reliable American friends as Japan and Israel don’t quite match up.

The Founders left us this precious gift – and the enemies of America, since 1776, have been at war with it. Back then it was monarchs, now it is communists. They cannot allow us to stand – because our existence is a direct challenge to them. For all their justifications of tyranny fall flat when we merely point to those words and say, “why not?”. Why aren’t your people endowed with rights? Why can’t they alter or abolish their government? What are you afraid of?

The people, of course. They always fear the people. And the more they claim the mantle of tribune of the people, the more dark fear eats their hearts. Because the people, if really asked, would just opt for those few words. My rights are mine: God (or Nature, if you like) gave them to me by simple fact of being human. I, along with my fellow human beings, will decide our form of government – we will not have it imposed upon us. Neither by claims of tradition nor revolutionary necessity. We can actually see this in the World Cup events here in the United States: people from all around the globe, of every possible creed, are just having a good time – singing and dancing with each other in sheer joy. Why? Because here, in the USA, they are freed from their tribal leaders who keep them down…nobody is telling them to hate, and so they are loving. They might go back home next week and immediately fall prey to the liars who poison their minds…but in this brief moment, in the one truly free country on Earth, their humanity shines forth…and they are, even if only for a moment, just like us.

We dare not lose this precious gift. It is under attack, at home and abroad. Indeed, we look with sorrow on the number of Americans who minds are so poisoned that they are refusing to join us in celebration of our 250th anniversary. I believe we will save this last, best hope. I do believe that what is good cannot perish; and those few words, written 250 years ago, make us good. Not that we don’t ever sin, but that as long as we hold those words to be the self-evident truths they are, then we cannot totally fail, and we will recall ourselves to the promise of America.

Happy Fourth of July! A Glorious Fourth! A nation 250 years in the making, the marvel of the world! May God bless us and keep us!

Open Thread

Mark Noonan9 Comments

The funniest thing, ever, would be the USA winning the World Cup. But, be that as it may: we’re close to 250!

We here on the MAGA side are enjoying ourselves immensely. We’re not dooming. We’re no worried. We’re not apologizing. We’re just having some fun! It is summer time! It is our 250th anniversary! We’re riding a tide of victory in war and peace.

Democrats? They’re going full communist. This is the natural progression of things – inevitable, really, since McGovern got the Democrat nomination in 1972. Gotta keep in mind that McGovern was the darling of those whom Mayor Daley smashed heads in 1968. They let the radicals in…and the radicals just keep taking more and more space. Democrats should have kept smashing heads. But, too late now. They’ll go into November – and very likely into 2028 as well – making ritualistic statements about freeing Palestine and asserting their support for They/Them.

Officially the Democrats are still set to win. We’ll see. The only thing they have going for them is historic precedent – in terms of money and broad based appeal, the GOP has it going on.

Oh, and Tim Walz pardoned a guy who raped a child just so ICE would have a harder time deporting him. This is the sort of thing the GOP will emphasize going into November…likely starting with ads during the World Series.

Some Court Rulings

Mark Noonan16 Comments

The Supreme Court reaffirmed Sullivan today – keep in mind that Sullivan was a rather tortuous ruling which had really only one purpose in mind: allowing Martin Luther King’s people to lie with impunity about Southern rednecks. The genesis of Sullivan (a government official in Alabama) was that King’s people had placed an ad in the New York Times to bring attention to King’s cause. All well and good: but they had fabricated several of their assertions in an attempt to paint King in the best light and Alabama authorities in the worst. Sullivan, the official most directly concerned sued and won – including up to the Alabama Supreme Court because there was zero doubt that there were false statements in the ad which had defamed Sullivan (and, by extension, the entirety of Alabama government). What the Supreme Court did is take valid First Amendment protections (we can say what we want) and turn them on their head by saying “you can lie about an official unless that official can meet nearly impossible standards of proof of malice”.

Nothing in what Sullivan – the person – did in any way inhibited even the most robust free speech. All he was going after was redress for lies. Not mistakes. Not misinterpretations. Not opinions disagreed with. Lies. Bald faced falsehoods which had no basis in fact. Additionally, totally unnecessary lies…that is, the case for King was strong enough based upon the unvarnished truth. King’s people could have retracted, apologized and then got on with it. But that would have been a win for…you know…those people. The Rednecks. Dirty people without proper credentials. What’s a bit of lying compared to the proper, Progressive outcome?

The Court might not have intended all the knock-on effects…but they have been devastating. The whole culture of lies we have in America today stems from the ruling, which made it nearly impossible to punish lies broadcast over any type of media. It didn’t provide protection for free speech – it just protected lies. It completely negated the reason for the First Amendment…to ensure vigorous debate about policy. Now its just a competition to see who can lie the most brazenly and crudely enforce their lies in the public square.

The Supreme Court also ruled today that it is Election Week, not Election Day – essentially giving States the ability to drag out that vote count as long as they like (ie, until the Democrat wins). Now, there is some basis for the ruling – elections, even to federal office, are under the control of the States. But, on the other hand, the Constitution does say it all has to be done on the same day. Not the same week (or longer). The correct ruling would have been all ballots received before close of polls on Election Day are valid – but while we have a 6-3 Court majority on most issues, it is 5-4 against on any issue which would seriously impede the Democrats. That is, if a Ruling would harm Democrat power in any significant way, we’ll find two of the supposedly Conservative Justices knifing us. That way they can go to parties in northern Virginia and point out that they screwed over those dirty Rednecks. Again.

Ultimately, judicial review is going to be set aside – it is something that the Executive has given to the Judiciary as a matter of courtesy. There is no warrant for it in the Constitution. Can’t stop the judges from issuing their rulings…but whether or not they’ll be obeyed is entirely discretionary. I’d prefer we keep the old way of doing it…but I cannot agree that 5 unelected judges get to make such clearly political decisions for us.

On the good news front, the Court ruled that Trump can fire FTC commissioners at will. This is important as it gets rid of what is called Humphrey’s Executor – a 1935 Court decision which held that Congress may via statute limit the President’s ability to fire Executive branch employees. This new ruling – Trump v. Slaughter – restores proper Executive authority. By extension, it might well get rid of all restrictions on firing Executive branch employees. This means that the civil service protections which have saddled us with liberal bureaucrats to undermine GOP Presidents might be gone. We’ll see how that plays out.

UPDATE: The Court ruled absurdly on the citizenship case…figuring that a person can cross the border illegally today and give birth to a citizen tomorrow. No sane reading of the 14th can sustain this…but the three liberals were joined by Roberts and Barrett who want sooooo badly to let their liberal friends know they’re really cool kids and can they please sit at the table?

Trump does retain tools on this – first off, of course, continuing to deport. Also, cracking down on those who employ or otherwise assist illegals to stay in country. Revoke visas for women of child bearing years. Lots of things…but, now, the Court has made it so that we’ll have to amend the Constitution. Know how I want it written?

Whereas only a complete idiot would think the 14th Amendment secures citizenship to the children of illegals born in the United States, this Amendment states you have to be born to two American citizens within the territory of the United States to be a natural born citizen.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan25 Comments

Hey guys! I was in Del Mar the past few days. As I’ve noted before, I have been going to that beach for more than half a century but it was this trip where I finally got tagged by the stingrays endemic to the area. Fortunately, it was a juvenile, I stepped on the poor guy and he only managed a glancing blow at me…so, rather than “cry like a girl” agonizing pain, it was just a bit of swelling and a burning/tingling sensation for about 48 hours. But it has been a few days, huh?

The Supreme Court ruled that the “temporary” in “temporary protected status” is, indeed, “temporary”. Shocking, huh? Who coulda guessed? Turns out that just as a Democrat can hand-wave in millions, a Republican can then hand-wave them out. The trouble here is that it took years of litigation to simply get a ruling observing that the law is just like that – and on and on again with provision after provision of our immigration laws. On the books – in some cases – for decades; ruled on previously by the Courts; clearly assigning to the Executive plenary power to determine which foreigners are to be allowed in, to remain and to be kicked out. There is no court case to even bring in the matter of immigration enforcement…it isn’t a matter of equal protection of the laws. It isn’t a punishment to be sent home…it is just being sent home. We aren’t denying anyone life, liberty or property. The presence of any foreigner in the USA is entirely discretionary. But Democrats find judges who simply ignore the law…and that is what needs to be squashed. And if Roberts won’t squash it via judicial order (essentially telling the district courts to butt out, such matters are only for the Supreme Court), then we’ll have to squash it by law – as per the Constitution which assigns to Congress the methods whereby access to the federal courts is granted.

We still don’t have our ruling on the birthright citizenship case and the prognostication is that Roberts will write it. I don’t expect him to do other than try to split the baby – issuing a ruling which doesn’t totally accept birthright citizenship but also doesn’t totally reject it. Ultimately, this is a matter for the Legislature to address and we’re gonna need a much more MAGA Congress to get anything close to what the framers of the 14th intended. The good news is that the people are going to be on our side in this – none but a lunatic commie would think that just because you were pushed out in US territory you are as Yankee as Sam Adams.

Speaking of commies, in very low (and I really mean very low) turnout primary elections in New York, Mamdani’s commies managed to knock out several incumbent House Democrats. These people loath us, of course, but they ain’t exactly in love with the current Democrat leadership. These are the people who really believe the USA was founded so white people could be racists. Who believe that there should be no border…and no law enforcement (except against white people, of course). They are completely lunatic in their views…and Trump plus the RNC are going to make them the face of the Democrat Party. Officially, the Dem leadership is pleased as punch…”we’re a big tent” and all that. But the Democrats are already starved for funds and these commies aren’t going to make big money feel like donating.

Keep in mind, also, that these commies lost blacks. Lost Latinos. Lost working class voters. They got in via their overwhelming support from upper class whites…especially females. One of the little Maoists is already on the seventh year of her PhD program…and is a trust fund baby. Complains about cruel landlords…while her own father is a landlord. In other words, just typical commies…half-educated, half-baked children of extreme privilege. The only senior communist leader who was working class was Kruschev…not coincidentally, he was also the only one who retained a shred of human decency. Don’t get me wrong, he’d order a man shot at the drop of a hat…but he remembered what it was like to work, and he dined with his servants. Other than him, the rest of them are all junior league Lenins and Maos…just itching to punish everyone for the sin of not giving them all power and money for the asking.

The deal with Iran continues to be worked as oil prices drop and Trump puts pressure on gasoline distributors to speed up price drops. Yes, Trump knows market economics…but it is good politics and, lets face it, always infuriating when gas prices rocket up but only drift down. Still not sure we can find the right batch of lunatics in Tehran to make a full deal with, but the bottom line is that Iran has been reduced to impotence…nobody really cares what they say or do. And if they get sticky, we’ll just blow up some more of their stuff.

Trump kicked off America 250…and, guys, being American is going to be just our thing this year. Democrats have decided that they can’t say a good word about America because if they do so, it might help Trump. Wave that flag – everyone who sees you do it will know you’re MAGA.

Usha Vance caught some flack for her maternity dress…so she revealed she got the $50 dress for less than $9. There is no better way to make her relatable to American women. My wife loves deals like that. I’ll bet 90% of all women do. Sure, those with blue hair or upcoming prostate exams won’t be wowed by it…but they weren’t going to vote for us anyway. Whatever betide, if my books ever become big I just hope Usha forgives the fact that in Book X, the main bad guy is a witch…named Usha.

Open Thread

Mark Noonan19 Comments

Starmer is going to resign his office. Doesn’t really matter as his replacement will be a carbon-copy. There isn’t a dime’s worth a difference between anyone in Labour. Heck, between anyone on the global Left. They’re all liars. They’re all cruel, greedy and stupid. Starmer and his Party – in conjunction with the Tories – allowed the rape gangs to flourish in the UK and are still trying to sweep it under the rug…but what do you expect from people who think that abortion and “assisted suicide” are good? Who think that hordes of foreigners are great? Who believe that if they just impoverish their own people it will cure “global warming”? And, of course, as they push these anti-human policies they’re all stealing as much as they can.

Labour does look like its heading for a trouncing but an election doesn’t have to be called until 2029. And with Labour holding an absolute majority of around eighty seats, there is little chance anyone can force an early election. In other words, lots of time to set things up – mostly by imposing censorship to ensure nobody hears how bad it is and, of course, grant yet larger numbers of migrants citizenship so they can vote in another Labour government with 34% of the vote. The Tories are completely craven. Reform is showing itself unwilling to actually tackle the immigration issue…and Restore Britain will be lucky to get 5% of the vote…which is indicative of how many actual patriots still reside in the UK. Just the sad and pathetic ending of a great nation…the Ruling Class, starting with the next King, will convert to Islam and that will be the end of it (and you just watch the feminists say the burka is feminist as it saves women from the perils of the Male Gaze).

The Left is so lunatic here in the USA that they are actively vandalizing the reflecting pool in DC – tearing up the material and dumping algae into the water. These are people who will kill us all in an instant if they had the power.

Still lot of back and forth on the Iran thing. Its a process, guys! Patience. Trump will bomb if he has to – and even bomb quite a lot if necessary. The Iranians have nothing but bluster – and an army of social media bots. They can’t close the strait – it takes a Navy and Air Force to do that. They haven’t got one. Some are saying Trump doesn’t realize the sort of people he’s dealing with – the reality is the Iranians still don’t know who they’re dealing with. Trump isn’t just another American President who will roll over just to get something signed. It is either do as you’re told, or lose out. Meanwhile, the oil flows, gas prices drop and the whole world starts to adjust to getting oil through any channel but the strait of Hormuz.

People are going to serious extremes to paint it all bad. I mean seriously quoting known liars because they’re saying the Orange Man is Bad. It is like we’re going to have to draw pictures explaining that the side which can bomb at will is the winner. But, not really: they know we’ve won. They just hate Trump – and need to somehow prove to everyone that they hate Trump.

RNC came into June with $125 million on hand. Democrats? Negative $3.5 million. And the GOP number does not include the gigantic amount Trump and his various PACs have. There is no way the polls are right given then – they aren’t wrong; they’re lies. Not even within ten points of reality.

Understanding War and Peace

Mark Noonan15 Comments

I think I see the problem some are having with Trump’s Iran negotiations. I’m not talking about the lunatics on the Left, nor the pathetic Never Trumpers, worn out Neo-Cons and assorted grifters. No: I’m talking about those who want victory and fear Trump is throwing it away. Here we go:

They neither understand what constitutes victory, nor understand why we lost all of the post-WWII wars.

The first part is easier: most people, on the whole, don’t understand military or foreign affairs (this is especially true among senior military and State Department personnel, until Trump II). Lacking such knowledge, they feel that there should be an abject surrender ala Reims or Tokyo Bay. Gotta tell ya: these are not usual. In fact, they’re nearly unique. Of course, total war is nearly unique…the world approached it in WWI and went overboard on it in WWII, but such is not the norm. Usually the enemy quits before all resources are exhausted – that is, the leadership weighs things and figures that continued fighting is more costly than peace, and so peace is made.

In my view, the demand for unconditional surrender was a gigantic strategic and moral mistake. The Germans and Japanese were already determined enough to fight hard; that demand just fused their peoples into a determined mass willing to fight to the last man. Had we offered a way out, the voices of ceasefire would have been able to rise to the top. We should have offered peace to a non-Nazi Germany on basis of her 1938 borders. Peace to a Japan willing to surrender all post-1932 conquests. Heck, we should have worked Germany to overthrow the Hitler regime and place Rupprecht of Bavaria on a new German throne (thoroughly Royal, despised the Nazis, wanted to curb Prussian militarism – just perfect, actually). The demand for unconditional surrender probably extended the war at least a year longer than otherwise…with untold millions being killed as a result. Plus half of Europe in Soviet hands with no major Continental Power able to stand athwart Stalin’s ambitions. It is not a good idea to totally destroy your enemy…you might need him as a friend. Often very soon. Look how quickly we actually needed a powerful Germany after 1945. Japan, too. Didn’t have them, so we had to take the whole burden upon ourselves.

So much for the easy part – that is, people just not knowing that you can win a war and leave your enemy alive. Now, to the second part: why did we lose all those wars?

Quite simple: we held back the full application of our power against an enemy who was supported by outside powers we deemed off limits to retaliation. It is really nothing more than that. Or do you really think some Korean and Vietnamese peasants could do what the Waffen SS and Japanese soldiers failed to do? Sorry, no: they didn’t beat us in a stand up fight. They didn’t, in fact, beat us at all. We beat ourselves. Failure to apply power. Failure to take the steps necessary to victory. Allowing the conflicts to drag on for years, causing dismay among the American population. What we have done since 1945 is set ourselves up for defeat. Rather insane. Stupid, too. And you do wonder if we had people in our government deliberately setting this up? That’s for a later time. Suffice it to say that if we allowed our enemies to script our moves, it could not have ever come out worse.

Until Trump.

Trump is not a man of war. He takes a businessman’s view of it. That is, its bad for business. Why shoot when you can work a deal beneficial to both sides? This sort of view can get you into some trouble (it fails to take in to consideration the simple passions which war can cause), but on the whole it is the best way to go about it…because war is a business. A nasty one, to be sure. As the old saying goes, amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics. Business, that is. Not the glorious charge or the clever flanking move…but how can I get this many troops there by this day? How long can I supply them? How large are the enemy’s supplies? Who can produce more supplies over time? These are the questions which real generals ponder. And Trump seems to instinctively know this – and so his plan, when he put it in motion, was two fold: hammer the leadership in hopes of an uprising and hammer Iran’s economy so that even if there wasn’t an uprising, whoever was in charge would have to come to the table. We haven’t engaged in that sort of warfare since 1945. There was no uprising…but Iran’s economy is in shambles. They came to the table because if they couldn’t start selling as much oil as the market can bear, there would be an uprising because the Iranian people are running out of food.

Iran also has no outside power willing to bankroll them. Russia and China are friendly, but neither want to tangle with us over Iran. Plus we just demonstrated that Russian and Chinese military hardware is worthless on the battlefield against us. Just as they had to after the first Gulf War, they are now pausing to rethink their whole strategic worldview. They are once again unsure they can actually fight us – so, time to lay low. A year ago the Chinese might have been thinking they could send a naval task force to contest our control of the Arabian Gulf…but not today. All they’d be doing is providing excellent naval scrap. Without a patron, without the ability to endlessly kill Americans, with their economy on the verge of collapse…they really had to come to the table.

Can we trust them? Of course not! But peace doesn’t require trust. No more than alliance does. It requires shared interests. Right now, Iran has a vested interest in a calm middle east. A time for it to recover a bit. Build a bit. Reconsider strategic choices. Argue amongst themselves who gets to be in charge. We, too, need a calm middle east and an Iran no longer sabre rattling all over the Middle East. We need time for the peace efforts to really take hold and encompass the entire region. This is why Trump was so mad at Israel for bombing terrorists in Lebanon: for very small returns – killing a few more terrorists – Israel nearly upset the apple cart. Hey, I get it: Israel would like all her enemies dead. But Israel, herself, refused to do this in Gaza. For the most decent and humane reasons, to be sure, but it totally undercuts bloodthirsty demands about Iran…as well Hezbollah creeps in Lebanon (who probably haven’t been paid in months given Iran’s troubles). Both sides need peace – and so we’re going to try to make it. And even if the Mullah regime survives, that isn’t a defeat. It is, in fact, a victory – because Iran’s whole thing has been to disturb the peace.

War and Peace With Iran

Mark Noonan13 Comments

War is a continuation of politics by other means, Von Clausewitz famously said. Lot of people forget, though, that politics is a continuation of war by other means. They are, ultimately, the same thing – a person who truly understands war understands politics and vice versa. I bring this up because we have a lot of people dooming over the pending deal with Iran.

First off, we don’t really know the details yet. It hasn’t been released. Trump has outlined (for months) the broad outlines of what we’re after: no Iranian nukes, no threats to commerce, Iran ceases using proxy forces around the Middle East. Trump says he’s close to a deal to get what we want. Ok. Lets wait and see. If you really think that Trump will throw away our overwhelming victory over Iran then I just don’t know what to say: I can only assume you’re just so filled with hatred of Trump that you’ll swallow any nonsense fed to you by known liars.

Secondly, just what do you want? That is, what is your post-war?

It is a serious question and one which hasn’t been asked for a very long time. And, in fact, it is rarely asked during any war. But it is the most crucial thing to ask. In fact, if you don’t ask and find your answer, you really shouldn’t engage in war. There have been so many wars in human history and for most of them people don’t even ponder what is next – and this is true for both just and unjust wars. But if you are in any way a serious person, you have to know what you want at the end of it. I do believe Trump knows what he wants.

In any war you can have your idea outcome in mind but you must also have your merely acceptable outcome ready. You can never know what is going to happen once the guns go off. The enemy, after all, does get a say. Trump’s ideal outcome in Iran was the Iranian people overthrowing the Mullahs. I thought it would happen. I think almost all of us did. Trump certainly did. But with the Mullah regime decapitated, its remaining leaders in hiding and their goon squads running the Iranian people simply did not move. They didn’t want to risk their lives. Had they done so, US and Israeli air cover would have been available. Nothing happened. They took videos and then went home. Given this, our ideal outcome became out of reach. We will not usher in the end of the Mullah regime short of a US invasion and no sane person in America wants that. It isn’t that we wouldn’t win it is that in the post-war we’d be responsible for rebuilding Iran and you just know the Iranians would take pot-shots at us as they vie to be more anti-American than the next guy. No, thanks.

So, given that the Mullahs truly gauged the quality of their people, what next? It has got to be a deal. We could keep bombing. But to what purpose? It is still an option and Trump has repeatedly said he’d resort to it absent a deal…but, for goodness sake, you’re not supposed to want Iran reduced to rubble. Whatever else they are, they are your fellow human beings. If necessity requires you to kill them, then so be it – but if you can abridge the slaughter and still obtain your minimal requirements then it would be a crime to keep killing. Right now, Trump says he can make the deal – presumably no nukes, open seas, no proxies. Lets see if it can be done.

Will Iran break the deal? They might. You can’t trust them any further than you could throw them. But they also just found out that 25 years of military build up using untold amounts of money turned out to be a complete waste of time. They couldn’t even slow us down. That is a lesson which only a fool ignores. Might they all be fools? Could be. But, I doubt it. Given that at least some significant faction of the mafia running Iran is talking, there are at least some people there who know that it is time to lay low, rebuild and try again down the road. Long down the road. So far down the road that by the time you get there, attacking the USA might not remain a priority. In other words, it is time for peace. War might come again. War might always come again. But it is time for peace. The Mullah dream of conquering the Middle East is over. And outside some potential fanatics, everyone understands it. But, meanwhile, Iran still carries great weight. They can have strong influence in the area…if they make a deal and thus are able to rebuild. Their choice, ultimately.

But right back to it: what do you want? What do you think is best for America? In my view, what we want is us exiting the Middle East. That is, peace is secured to the extent that we don’t need to be deeply involved over there. I don’t care if some random Islamist nutter sets off a bomb – that is for the local people to deal with. What I do want – and I think America should insist upon – is the free movement of oil combined with no attempts by any Middle East party to export their lunacy to the rest of the world. Remain 7th century savages for all I care – as long as you don’t export it to the USA. I don’t want us to have to fuss every time some idiot does something stupid. I want our forces to withdraw from the Middle East. I want good relations there – especially with Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. I want to have in place various protocols for what to do if some idiot decides to set the place on fire…but I don’t want us deeply involved in the day to day. Let the people there sort themselves out.

I doubt that those pre-condemning Trump have any idea what they want. Other than to take exception to any Trump action, that is. If we hadn’t hit at all they’d condemn. If we kept hitting they’d condemn. If Trump’s deal works, they’ll still condemn. But as I’ve been saying for a while now, it is time we rejoined the real world…and in that real world we don’t have to be eternally engaged in warfare. We can make peace. Even with people we hate and who hate us. Peace isn’t love. Peace isn’t trust. Peace is…peace. It is a state where we’re not shooting at each other and are unlikely to do so any time soon. I think Trump is going to get us that – and that is good.

Update:

Open Thread

Mark Noonan13 Comments

On again, off again with Iran – but I saw some of the video of yesterday’s bombing and it was ferocious. Trump now says the Mullahs again are ready to talk. We’ll see – but also for the first time he indicated the next step is taking Kharg Island. Though, keep in mind, that could be a decoy to have the Mullahs move their remaining assets there to be bombed while we move somewhere else. Bottom line, Trump just showed the Mullahs – and the world – that we have absolute military supremacy. Whatever amount of pain we want to inflict will be inflicted and Iran can’t even slow it down. Oil futures are down under $87 a barrel … which makes me feel the people most in the know figure Iran really is ready to deal; that is, the Iranians, themselves, might be telling the oil market that they’re quitting and thus oil will soon flow very freely (Iran desperately needs this – they haven’t made money in weeks and Goon Squads don’t work for free).

Irish and Brit politicians who knelt for Floyd of Fentanyl are upset that some people in Belfast are rioting against the migrants…anyways, the protests are mostly peaceful, right? The disgusting part of the pols is that they’re straight faced telling us that it is wrong to riot because of injustice right after they told us people must riot because of injustice. We’re used to such disgusting acts…but that doesn’t make us any less disgusted. I still don’t think the Brits – or the Irish – have the guts to really do what is necessary…that is, after a few are picked up by the police, the rest will quiet down. There is no way out for the UK without violence…it is the only way you can possibly get the government to listen. Only if Whitehall fears a lynch mob will they concede that a policy change is necessary. But, I do have some hope – maybe they really have had enough? It wouldn’t take much. Been saying that for a while – you don’t need 69 million Brits to rise up. Ten thousand would do in a pinch. One hundred thousand would make it a walk over. The British Army is about 75,000 strong, has a massive manpower shortage and is shot through with DEI leadership…I doubt they’d stand and fight as they almost certainly haven’t been taught how to do that. Get ten thousand rebels marching on London and you’d probably see half the government flee to France. Reminder: our opponents are stupid cowards; not men or women we actually have to fear.

Vance is going on The View – and, honestly, I can’t imagine why. Clearly he thinks it is a good idea. I mean, sure, he’s intellectually miles above the hosts on the show…but the problem here is they’ll say stupid things and when the applause sign lights up, the mindless crowd in the seats will cheer. I get taking the fight onto enemy territory…but, still.

Black lady I follow on X is just furious about the reaction of some black people to the Anthony verdict – pointing out the egregious lies being spread such as the jury was all white (it wasn’t; not even close) or that Anthony was the victim of a mob attack…which allegation was not raised where it would matter most: in court. This is because it didn’t happen. What clearly happened was that Anthony was somewhere he wasn’t supposed to be, got into some hot words with a man there, and then like a lunatic barbarian stabbed him over nothing. Out the gate this was a bare minimum second degree murder. The jury came back with first degree murder. But there really never was any doubt that it was felony murder…Anthony should have plead out. But, he didn’t. And he didn’t because he clearly has the idea in his head that his skin color excuses him from civilized behavior. He was taught that he’s of a Master Race…and it was in the public schools and pop culture where he got this message. Seriously: Goebbles’ efforts were weak and pathetic compared to what our public schools and pop culture shove into the minds of Americans. Anthony simply felt that no white man should ever so much as talk back to him…he’s actually worse than the Klansmen of old who at least looked for some genuine offense (even if made up) to justify their actions…Anthony just didn’t like someone taking exception to him.

But it is crucial that we don’t get drawn into the race aspect here. It doesn’t matter what skin color Anthony is. What matters is that he’s a barbarian. He shouldn’t be getting mere jail time – he should be whipped within an inch of his life. And then get jail time. And then he hauled out once a year to again be whipped within an inch of his life. It is how you instruct barbarians. They won’t learn any other way. Hey, I get it: he’s what he was taught to be. Sorry ’bout that. Wish he hadn’t been taught to be a savage. But, he was – and now we civilized people have to apply the corrective. He took a man’s life – his life – over nothing. He wasn’t defending himself. Wasn’t defending others. He wasn’t even doing honest crime – trying to steal and fighting his way out of the jam. He just…saw a guy giving him some lip and decided in an instant that the man had to die. You can’t fully atone for that in a human justice system. The crime is so entirely disproportionate to anything rational that we can’t really get to justice. Killing him in return doesn’t balance the scales.

But whipping him and having him break rocks, would go a long way – and provide a bit of instruction to the barbarians out there that if they can’t control their emotions then some really bad things will be coming their way. In a generation, the problem is cured.

If you want to have a bit of fun, look around X at the foreigner accounts which are here for the World Cup…so many of these guys are just astonished at how great America is. The German account Freddy is the best.

I Implore You, Stop Being Idiots: the Democrats are Cheating

Mark Noonan16 Comments

Ramen conceded on election night. She knew she had been beaten and wouldn’t advance to the general. And then, miracle of miracles, she got an absolutely massive share of the mail-in ballots and surged ahead of second-place Pratt.

This does not happen in an honest system. The mail-in ballots might very well favor Democrats but they would favor all the Democrats, not just the one the Democrats need to get into second place to guarantee no non-Democrat can win in November. But that is what happened – it was an all-Ramen all the time voter surge…a massive number of Angelenos saved their votes for her and dropped them in the mail just in time to make sure she’d advance.

Statistical improbability is proof of fraud.

And it doesn’t matter how you spin it, it is fraud. Even if it legal under California and Los Angeles law, it is fraud – it is altering the election to favor the Ruling Class. But here come the Never Trump Republicans: “sure it looks bad, but we don’t have proof of fraud”. These morons still don’t get it: our opponents would eat us alive if they thought it would give them power and wealth. There is nothing they won’t do for power – no lie too ridiculous, no skullduggery too low. How are Democrats responding to GOPers still giving the benefit of the (non-existent) doubt? They’re working on axing Hilton from the November contest. They are cheating right in front of us and laughing at us while they do it…Never Trump: “Gee, guys, this looks really bad”. Implying that if the Democrats can make the cheat look a little more honest, it would be ok.

A Republic cannot survive cheating. It just can’t. If the people don’t feel that things are on the level, then they will opt for whatever Caesar comes along to who will at least give them their due…or at bare minimum destroy those who cheated their way into power and money. We cannot endure the fraud we see in California – it is not just a California problem: it threatens the life of our Republic. I do hope Team Trump is looking at this – rumor is they are; what I’d like to see is all of the election workers in Los Angeles arrested on civil rights violations…by participating in a crooked system, they are violating the rights of the people. I do think the laws already on the books would cover this…because, remember, you don’t necessarily have to be a conscious part of the cheat to be guilty of participation in it…if a reasonable person would suspect, then you have to suspect.

But outside of that, our side has to stop giving in to it…not in any way, shape or form. Call it out. Call those defending it liars (because that is what they are). Stop trying to find legal loopholes for them…they won’t find one for you. In fact, they’ll indict you in a heartbeat on totally false charges if they think it’ll help their cause. The Democrats are not normal people – they are insane, dishonest, ignorant and cruel. It doesn’t matter if they fully understand how destructive they are – we must understand it, and act accordingly. They are out to totally destroy us on the false notion that we’re all little Hitlers in the making…we have to destroy them just because of this, lest they destroy us.